Delitos de cuello blanco en Paraguay: Evidencias empíricas y predicción

Study analyzing and predicting white-collar crime in Paraguay with data from 2000 - 2018 and predicting the next year 2019.

research
crime
white collar crime
time series analysis
spanish
Author
Affiliation
Published

December 2020

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Abstract

This article contributes to the white-collar crime literature and to sensitizing the Attorney General, the Judiciary, the Ministry of Justice and the Ombudsman by analyzing these crimes with a single set of monthly aggregated data. The time series includes incidents from 2000 to 2018. In addition, an ARIMA model is presented to model the data generating process with the intention of predicting the next year in the series. The findings show that white-collar crime has increased more than 236% and the index rose to 830 points, respectively, with a peak in 2015. Fraud and violation of trust contribute to more than 91% of total incidents. A prediction for 2019 indicates an increase of 11.15% compared to the previous year.

Featured article figure

Figure 1: White collar crime: 2000 - 2018.
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